Final Oscar Predictions: Documentary Feature 20 Days in Mariupol is Too Important to

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Documentary Feature

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): With the Directors Guild of America and BAFTA Awards in hand, in addition to the tragic news of the death of Alexei Navalny, the subject of the Oscar-winning “Navalny” last year, “20 Days in Mariupol” is too important to ignore.

Will Win: “20 Days in Mariupol” (Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath)
Could Win: “To Kill a Tiger” (Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim)
Should Win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
Should have been here: “American Symphony” (Matthew Heineman, Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun) and “Beyond Utopia” (Madeleine Gavin, Rachel Cohen, Jana Edelbaum, Sue Mi Terry)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Nominees Are:

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized)**

• “AKA Mr. Chow”
• “After Sherman”
• “Against the Tide”
• “Alexander”
• “American Symphony”
• “American: An Odyssey to 1947”
• “Americonned”
• “And Miles to Go before I Sleep”
• “Anhell69”
• “Anonymous Sister”
• “Another Body”
• “Anselm”
• “Apache Blues: Welcome Home”
• “Apolonia, Apolonia”
• “Bad Press”
• “Batata”
• “Bella”
• “Bella!”
• “Beyond Utopia”
• “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
• “Bye Bye Tiberias”
• “Canary”
• “Carlos”
• “Carterland”
• “Close to Vermeer”
• “Common Ground”
• “A Compassionate Spy”
• “Cup of Salvation”
• “De Humani Corporis Fabrica”
• “Deep Rising”
• “The Deepest Breath”
• “Deserters”
• “Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy”
• “The Disappearance of Shere Hite”
• “Dosed: The Trip of a Lifetime”
• “Downwind”
• “Eat Bitter”
• “The Echo”
• “El Juicio”
• “Elis & Tom – It Had to Be You”
• “The Eternal Memory”
• “Every Body”
• “Fantastic Machine”
• “Finding Her Beat”
• “Fioretta”
• “For the Animals”
• “Four Daughters”
• “Full Circle”
• “Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project”
• “Grandpa Was an Emperor”
• “Have You Got It Yet? The Story of Syd Barrett and Pink Floyd”
• “Here. Is. Better.”
• “High & Low – John Galliano”
• “The Holly”
• “Holy Frit”
• “I Got a Monster”
• “If You Let Me Go”
• “Imagining the Indian”
• “Immediate Family”
• “In the Company of Rose”
• “In the Rearview”
• “In the Shadow of Beirut”
• “In Viaggio: The Travels of Pope Francis”
• “Incompatible with Life”
• “Into the Spotlight”
• “The Invention of the Other”
• “Invisible Beauty”
• “The Issue with Tissue – A Boreal Love Story”
• “It Ain’t Over”
• “Joan Baez I Am a Noise”
• “Joonam”
• “King Coal”
• “Knights of Santiago”
• “Kokomo City”
• “The Lady Bird Diaries”
• “Lakota Nation vs. United States”
• “Land of My Dreams”
• “The Last Rider”
• “The League”
• “Lift”
• “Little Richard: I Am Everything”
• “The Lost Weekend: A Love Story”
• “The Melt Goes on Forever: The Art & Times of David Hammons”
• “Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros”
• “The Mission”
• “Mission Peace: The Staunch Moderates Documentary”
• “Mr. Jimmy”
• “The Mother of All Lies”
• “Motherland”
• “The Mountains”
• “Mourning in Lod”
• “Music Is My Life – Dr. Joseph Shabalala and Ladysmith Black Mambazo”
• “My Name Is Happy”
• “Nam June Paik: Moon Is the Oldest TV”
• “1946: The Mistranslation That Shifted Culture”
• “North Circular”
• “Occupied City”
• “Orlando, My Political Biography”
• “Our Body”
• “Pacific Mother”
• “The Padilla Affair”
• “The Painting”
• “Pay or Die”
• “Periodical”
• “Photophobia”
• “Pianoforte”
• “Pictures of Ghosts”
• “The Pigeon Tunnel”
• “Plan C”
• “Radical Wolfe”
• “Razing Liberty Square”
• “Reality Winner”
• “Refuge”
• “A Revolution on Canvas”
• “Rewind & Play”
• “A Rising Fury”
• “Robert Irwin: A Desert of Pure Feeling”
• “Rojek”
• “Sam Now”
• “Samuel and the Light”
• “The Secret Cities of Mark Kistler”
• “Shot in the Arm”
• “Show Her the Money”
• “Silver Dollar Road”
• “Sly”
• “The Smell of Money”
• “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood”
• “A Song Film by Kishi Bashi – ‘Omoiyari’”
• “Songs of Earth”
• “Sound of the Police”
• “Splice Here: A Projected Odyssey”
• “Stamped from the Beginning”
• “State of the Unity”
• “Stephen Curry: Underrated”
• “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
• “A Still Small Voice”
• “A Storm Foretold”
• “Subject”
• “Symphony of the Holocaust”
• “Taylor Mac’s 24-Decade History of Popular Music”
• “They Shot the Piano Player”
• “32 Sounds”
• “This Much We Know”
• “Thy Neighbours”
• “Tito, Margot and Me”
• “To Kill a Tiger”
• “Total Trust”
• “20 Days in Mariupol”
• “26.2 to Life”
• “Twice Colonized”
• “Umberto Eco: A Library of the World”
• “Uncharitable”
• “Unconditional”
• “Under the Sky of Damascus”
• “Unfinished Business”
• “Unseen”
• “Unzipped: An Autopsy of American Inequality”
• “Victim/Suspect”
• “We Dare to Dream”
• “What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears?”
• “While the Green Grass Grows”
• “While We Watched”
• “Who I Am Not”
• “Wild Beauty: Mustang Spirit of the West”
• “Yoshiki under the Sky”
• “You Were My First Boyfriend”
• “Your Fat Friend”

2022 category winner: “Navalny” (CNN Films) — Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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